Obama, Clinton close in latest Indiana poll

By DAVID A. MANN
David.Mann@newsandtribune.com

April 29, 2008 10:57 am

— A new poll shows Sens. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., are nearly tied for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination among voters in the Hoosier State.
The Howey-Gauge Poll, released today, shows Obama at 47 percent and Clinton at 45 percent. Obama’s slight edge is within the poll’s 4.1 percent margin of error. About 8 percent are undecided. The poll was conducted for the Howey Political Report. A similar poll was produced by the organization in February.
Since then, Clinton has closed what had been a 15-point gap, said Michael Davis, president of the Indianpolis-based Gauge Market Research, which conducted the poll. The number of undecided voters is also down.
In most demographics there are clear differences, he said. Younger voters support Obama, while older voters favor Clinton. Black voters favor Obama, while white voters favor Clinton. And male voters favor Obama, while female voters lean toward Clinton.
Clinton and Obama have been battling since the beginning of the year and the nomination has yet to be decided. The protracted process has given Indiana political relevance in a decision that is typically made by voters in other states.
Almost one in five heading to the polls next Tuesday will be non-Democratic voters, Davis said.
“That’s a large number.”
The data show that voters who identify themselves as independents like Obama, while voters who consider themselves Republicans favor Clinton. It’s a dead heat between the two senators for voters who identify themselves as Democrats.
Obama and Clinton each have made stops in Southern Indiana during the last month or so. Obama has the lead in the number of total delegates. The winner of the nomination will face Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican Party presidential nominee, during the November election.
Gubernatorial findings
The poll also showed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jill Long-Thompson with a substantial lead over rival Jim Schellinger. The two are facing each other for the party’s nomination to run against incumbent Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels.
Long-Thompson has a 45 percent to 27 percent lead over Schellinger. Davis said she’s doing better than Schellinger in nearly every demographic group and in the four largest media markets — Indianapolis, Chicago, South Bend and Fort Wayne. She also leads in the Louisville and Evansville media markets. About 28 percent of voters are undecided in that race.
Davis said the biggest surprise is low name recognition among Democrats. Only 50 percent of voters surveyed knew Schellinger, 58 percent knew Long-Thompson.
Daniels has a solid lead in projected match-ups for the November election. The current governor is favored 55 percent to 38 percent against Long-Thompson. And 55 percent to 33 percent against Schellinger.
Davis said Long-Thompson has improved by four percentage points against the governor since the February poll. Schellinger has made no gain against Daniels.

The Howey-Gauge Poll
Democratic presidential race
• 47 percent planning to vote for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama
• 45 percent planning to vote for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton
• 8 percent are undecided
Democratic gubernatorial race
• 45 percent planning to vote for gubernatorial candidate Jill Long-Thompson
• 27 percent planning to vote for gubernatorial candidate Jim Schellinger
• 28 percent are undecided

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