Published: September 02, 2009 08:43 pm      

Unemployment rate drops in metro area

Retail losses highest since beginning of recession

Another encouraging sign that unemployment may have bottomed in the region came in the form of a metro jobless report released Wednesday.

Louisville metro — which includes the Southern Indiana counties of Clark, Floyd, Harrison and Washington — saw its unemployment rate fall from 10.6 percent in June to 10.2 percent in July according to a U.S. Labor Department survey.

That means about 3,000 fewer people were jobless in July, though the labor force shrank by about 8,000 spots. Year over year employment losses have declined for two consecutive months after peaking in May.

Uric Dufrene, Sanders chair of the Indiana University Southeast business department, predicted earlier this year the jobless plunge would bottom out in the third quarter.

But the U.S. Labor study does show some discouraging signs.

“The decline of a labor force by 8,000 was somewhat above the average percentage change since 1990, suggesting that some workers are no longer seeking employment and leaving the labor force altogether,” Dufrene said.

Statewide, Indiana and Kentucky are driven by manufacturing positions. Dufrene credits a surge in the sector for the improved situation in Louisville metro.

“The continued slowdown in employment losses was fueled by a noticeable slowing in manufacturing losses,” he said.

“Nationally, we are seeing a turnaround in manufacturing, and [Tuesday] the Institute of Supply Management Index indicated that manufacturing is now expanding nationally, the first time since January 2008.”

According to the Labor Department, the amount of productivity per hour of work grew at a yearly mark of 6.6 percent during the second quarter, which was the biggest gain since 2003.

Ford Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. reported a rise in sales in August, credited to their fuel-effective line of vehicles.

“Locally, we can expect to see a continued deceleration in manufacturing employment losses,” Dufrene said.

But on the retail end, retail employment losses are the highest since the start of the recession.

“Retail will continue to see challenges even after the official end of the recession,” Dufrene said. “Significant swings in the personal savings rate implies that consumers have to spend less.”

Dufrene predicts the retail losses will spill over to the commercial real estate market.

Reports from the Associated Press contributed to this story