DERBY PICKS: Nothing is ever easy in Derby wagering

By CHARLES CRESS
sports@newsandtribune.com

May 02, 2008 09:10 pm

— While I may not be as famous as my son, I have spent 38 years watching and handicapping the Kentucky Derby. In that time, two things have become quite clear.
First of all, the best horse may not win and, secondly, you can make a case for every horse in the race for one reason or another. Those truths make the Derby the hardest race in the world to handicap.
The 134th running of the race is no exception, with one big question — how good is Big Brown?
Despite drawing the 20th post position and having only three career starts, you still have to give this horse a strong look for the win. His race in the Florida Derby was the best performance by any horse in all the prep races leading up to the Derby. Another big plus for the horse is having the services of two-time Derby-winning jockey Kent Desormeaux.
The pace of the race should also be in Big Brown’s favor, as it is shaping up as one of the fastest in history with at least five horses that like to run near or on the lead.
It figures that Recapturetheglory, Gayego, Bob Black Jack and Cowboy Cal, along with Big Brown, will battle for the lead going into the first turn and down the backstretch. This should give the race a very honest pace, which should help Big Brown’s tactical speed and set up the chances of the horses that like to close off the pace.
The best of these horses is Colonel John, who has four wins out of six lifetime starts and ran a fantastic race in the Santa Anita Derby getting up for the win in the last 10 yards.
Colonel John likes to run in mid-pack and then close out from there. If he stays out of trouble and has a clean trip, he has a great chance to win the race. There is also a good chance that he will be the post-time favorite, as people jump off the Big Brown bandwagon.
The change from the all weather tracks in California to the dirt at Churchill Downs shouldn’t be a problem as Colonel John’s strong workout from earlier in the week proved.
But if the track comes up wet, then you have to give Visionaire a great chance, as he is a proven winner in the slop.
If you choose to go by the numbers, only one horse fits in all four categories that count and that’s Smooth Air. He ran even with Big Brown over the last furlong in the Florida Derby and may be ready to improve off that race.
Pyro and Denis of Court were considered big contenders until their last races, but the dull efforts they put in the Blue Grass Stakes and the Illinois Derby, respectively, are hard to explain. I think they could have a small chance in the race because they both have done well at Churchill Downs, but I can’t see them getting into the top two spots.
The filly Eight Belles is also a very good horse. But in her last two races, she faced fields of less then seven horses and still ran into problems and barely got up for the wins in both of those races. I don’t believe she can handle the big field of 20 in this race, and it will be hard for her to get into the money.
None of the other horses in the race excite me, although Z-Fortune did run a nice second in the Arkansas Derby after running into problems in the race.
So, with all this information, and after all things are considered, what are the best bets in the race?
If the track is dry and fast, then you have to include Colonel John and Big Brown in your exacta wagering. If you like long shots, give Smooth Air and Visionaire a chance. This will make a good trifecta box.
Of course, the real thing to remember is that it’s the Kentucky Derby and anything can happen and probably will. Good luck and let the good times roll on Derby day.
Charles Cress is a longtime horse racing enthusiast who plans on buying a private island with his Derby winnings. He resides in Sellersburg.

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