Published: October 31, 2009 11:37 pm      

IN THE FAST LANE: Today is NASCAR's Wild-Card day

Talladega could go long way in determining champion

In baseball and football terms, wild cards mean the playoff spots given to Major League Baseball and NFL teams that failed to win their respective divisions, but got into the postseason because of a solid record.

In NASCAR terms, wild card is defined by just one word — Talladega.

Today, the wild-card race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup will take place at the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway.

Why is today’s Talladega race tabbed the wild card?

Because the only thing to expect today is the unexpected.

There is no track in NASCAR where a race can change in a split second more than Talladega. One little bobble by even the best drivers on the circuit can cause “The Big One” — which is a huge wreck that involves at least 15 cars and gets a bunch of fans excited.

Also, it is a place where if a driver has no drafting partners, he could be in for a long day.

When you consider these possible circumstances, you have to feel that in no way is Jimmie Johnson’s 118-point lead over second-place Mark Martin in the Cup standings safe.

If Johnson gets caught up in “The Big One,” and his teammates Martin and Jeff Gordon (150 points behind Johnson) or any other Chase participant wins, then the whole landscape of the 2009 Chase goes through a huge metamorphosis.

Suddenly, the Chase becomes an exciting, fierce battle.

Another move the competition might try with Johnson is to not draft with him at all.

Opposing drivers could actually play defense against the three-time defending champion. They have a great chance to hang Johnson out to dry in the draft as much as possible, especially at the end of the race.

Believe me, I have seen it done plenty of times to Gordon in the past and it could definitely be something Johnson battles today.

So if you have heard from the so-called experts that the Chase is over and Johnson should be crowned the champ right now, then don’t believe it.

Johnson has to get through Talladega, a place where he has finished 30th or worse five times in his career and where he placed 30th in the April race.



TODAY’S AMP ENERGY 500

at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway

TOP-FIVE CONTENDERS

1. DALE EARNHARDT JR.: Even though he is not in the Chase, he is still the man to beat at Talladega. Junior has five career wins at the track and almost added a sixth in April. The promotion of interim crew chief Lance McGrew to full-time status on Friday should give Earnhardt a shot in the arm entering today’s race.

2. JEFF GORDON: Besides Earnhardt, Gordon is probably the best restrictor-plate driver in Cup. He has six career victories and 13 career top-fives at the Alabama superspeedway. This might be the day when Gordon finally finishes ahead of Johnson and gains some valuable points in the Chase.

3. CARL EDWARDS: In April, he was about a quarter of a mile away from picking up his first Talladega win before … well, you know. (If you are a NASCAR fan and don’t know what happened, then it must have been nice and cool living under that huge boulder you hibernated in during the first half of the season.) Look for Carl to be battling for redemption today.

4. JIMMIE JOHNSON: Sure, the statistics and unpredictability of Talladega are against Johnson. But with the way he’s been running lately and having the always smart and cocky Chad Knaus as his crew chief, I don’t think Johnson is going to have a rough day today. Expect him to be battling for the win at the end like usual and pretty much wrap up an unprecedented fourth straight Cup title.

5. KURT BUSCH: He has a pretty solid career average finish at Talladega of 12.1, which includes six top-fives and 12 top-10s. Plus Penske Racing has stepped up its restrictor-plate program the past few seasons. Busch is due to get that first plate win someday, and there is a strong chance it could happen today.



TODAY’S DARK HORSE

• ELLIOTT SADLER: Well, I guess I have a change of heart for old Elliott after I picked him to struggle last Sunday at Martinsville. But I am not selecting him because of his brains behind the wheel. I’m making him the dark horse because of the car he will be driving today. Sadler will be in a Ford, which is the manufacturer he and the rest of Richard Petty Motorsports will be running next season. The car is from Yates Racing, which has had past success at Talladega. If Sadler uses his head, he should post at least a top-10 finish.



DRIVER MOST LIKELY TO STRUGGLE

• KYLE BUSCH: I haven’t had a chance to talk about NASCAR’s No. 1 crybaby and spoiled brat since his ego blew his hopes of making the Chase, so here it goes. Even though he won at Talladega last year, Busch has a career average finish of 25.7 at the track, including five finishes of 32nd or worse. Plus this is his final race with crew chief Steve Addington, who no longer has any chemistry with Busch. This divorce comes after Addington carried Busch to a career-best eight victories last season and four wins this year. Addington is one of the best crew chiefs in the Cup garage, but he couldn’t overcome the obstacle of Busch’s enormous ego. I foresee this being a problem for Busch’s crew chiefs in the future. To those unfortunate men, let me be the first to say, “Have fun, boys.”

Contact Kevin Harris at kevin.harris@newsandtribune.com.



CHASE FOR THE CUP STANDINGS

1. JIMMIE JOHNSON 6,098

2. MARK MARTIN -118

3. JEFF GORDON -150

4. TONY STEWART -192

5. JUAN MONTOYA -200

6. KURT BUSCH -240

7. RYAN NEWMAN -312

8. GREG BIFFLE -350

9. DENNY HAMLIN -352

10. CARL EDWARDS -413

11. KASEY KAHNE -439

12. BRIAN VICKERS -530