Published: November 05, 2008 04:06 pm      

Obama changed the political landscape

But not in Kentucky where McConnell, Williams prevail

Frankfort, Ky. — The historic election of Barack Obama changed the national political landscape in subtle and dramatic ways, but not so much in Kentucky.



Obama proved an African-American can be elected president and claimed white votes. He got almost 52 percent of the vote, more than any Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. He helped elect – along with the anti-Republican mood – more Democrats to Congress. Democrats picked up at least five Senate seats and 16 House seats. (At the time of this writing some races remain too close to call, so the number might grow.)



Because he did, he will initially enjoy power greater than his recent predecessors, power to get his agenda through a Congress controlled by his own party, but also power on the strength of his effect on the electoral map to say no to some of his own party’s Congressional leaders.



And he changed the map. He won Virginia and might still win North Carolina. He won Florida, New Mexico and Colorado. He won Indiana for goodness sakes. He won suburban areas in places like Virginia and Ohio, places Republicans used to count on. He won a majority of independents, nearly a third of the electorate.



Obama’s election may spell at least the temporary end of modern conservative dominance. For the first time since Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, it’s the center or center-left which has momentum and captured the support of voters. Even during the administration of Bill Clinton, it was the center-right which produced balanced budgets, surpluses and welfare reform.



The Republican Party not only lost power and seats – its future could be at risk. It faces a difficult demographic destiny. John McCain carried only one major demographic group – those over 65. Young people voted overwhelmingly for Obama and they aren’t moved by social wedge issues. When broken out by race, McCain barely carried white males. By 2050, non-whites will outnumber whites. Hispanics voted for Obama 67 to 31. Obama won Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all won by George Bush four years ago.



Look back at the Republican National Convention and the crowd which gathered for McCain’s concession speech. They were very homogenous, very white. Compare them to the crowd which gathered Tuesday night in Chicago – as television pundits put it: “It looked like America.” Republican strategist Ed Rollins said Wednesday, “My party is reduced to being the party of the white south.” The map backs him up.



That includes Kentucky, the first state to fall into McCain’s column Tuesday night. Tuesday’s election strengthened key Republicans in Kentucky and weakened Gov. Steve Beshear. Mitch McConnell carried a big target on his back yet turned back the challenge of Bruce Lunsford in an extremely hostile environment. David Williams showed again he’s much more formidable than Beshear seems to realize.



Republicans held onto all the Republican state Senate seats on the ballot, including the open 9th District which Democrats expected to win. David Givens won every county in the district except Barren, home of favored Democratic candidate Steve Newberry. Newberry had more money and the backing of Beshear and the local party and business establishments in the district’s most populous county. Givens won anyway. It was the second consecutive high profile Senate race (after the special election last spring in the 30th District) where Beshear got involved and the Republican ran against expanded gambling and defeated Beshear’s chosen candidate.



It doesn’t bode well for Beshear or his agenda.



RONNIE ELLIS writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com.